PET Plastic Bottle Consumption & Recycling Estimation Task
Your client recently started working on a business idea to reduce the number of plastic bottles that are not recycled. The idea is to commercialize a feedstock recycling solution for PET plastic, the most common plastic used in bottles.
Feedstock recycling breaks down PET into its monomers using chemical or biological methods, enabling the creation of new, high-quality PET from recovered building blocks.
The client would like an estimation of the world’s consumption of PET plastic bottles from January 2024 through December 2030.
Assume the average weight of an empty PET bottle is 10 grams.
Task Objectives
1. Estimate the number of plastic bottles consumed (2024–2030)
Process: a) Using the files “828 - Important Plastic Water Bottle Stats.pdf” and “828 - Worldbank Population - Original.csv”:
- Determine the average consumption of plastic water bottles per person per year (based on global daily consumption and world population in 2023).
- Round to the nearest whole number.
- Assume this per-person figure is constant from 2023–2030.
b) Using “828 - Worldbank Population - Original.csv”:
- Determine the 2019 and 2023 World population.
- Calculate the 2019–2023 CAGR (rounded to two decimal places).
- Forecast the World population (2024–2030) using the rounded CAGR, rounding each year’s figure to the nearest whole number.
c) Combine results from (a) and (b) to calculate the projected number of plastic bottles consumed (2024–2030), rounded to the nearest whole number.
2. Global annual demand for PET plastic bottles
a) Using “828 - Percent of Plastic Water Bottles.pdf”:
- Determine the % of bottles made from PET (assume this is for 2024).
- Increase by 1% compounded annually through 2030 (i.e., each year’s % = "previous year × 1.01").
- Round displayed % to one decimal place (e.g., 50.51% → 50.5%).
b) Using results from (a):
- Calculate the global annual demand for PET plastic bottles (2024–2030) in metric tons.
- Round to the nearest whole number.
- This represents the total PET volume potentially available for recycling.
Based on the provided documents, here is the estimation of the world’s consumption of PET plastic bottles from January 2024 through December 2030.
1. Projected Global Consumption of Plastic Bottles (2024-2030)
a) Average Consumption of Plastic Water Bottles Per Person Per Year
The average consumption rate was determined using global daily consumption data and the 2023 world population. This rate is assumed to remain constant through 2030.
- Global Daily Consumption: 1.3 billion bottles/day (Source:
828 - Important Plastic Water Bottle Stats.pdf.md) - Annual Global Consumption: 1,300,000,000 bottles/day * 365 days/year = 474,500,000,000 bottles/year
- 2023 World Population: 8,061,876,001 (Source:
828 - Worldbank Population - Original.csv) - Consumption Per Person: 474,500,000,000 / 8,061,876,001 = 58.86 bottles/person/year
The rounded average consumption of plastic water bottles is 59 per person per year.
b) World Population Forecast (2024-2030)
The forecast is based on the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of the world population from 2019 to 2023.
- 2019 World Population: 7,776,892,015 (Source:
828 - Worldbank Population - Original.csv) - 2023 World Population: 8,061,876,001 (Source:
828 - Worldbank Population - Original.csv) - 2019-2023 CAGR: ((8,061,876,001 / 7,776,892,015)^(1/4)) - 1 = 0.90%
| Year | Forecasted World Population |
|---|---|
| 2024 | 8,134,432,885 |
| 2025 | 8,207,642,781 |
| 2026 | 8,281,511,566 |
| 2027 | 8,356,045,170 |
| 2028 | 8,431,249,577 |
| 2029 | 8,507,130,823 |
| 2030 | 8,583,694,999 |
c) Projected Number of Plastic Bottles (2024-2030)
The projected number of bottles is calculated by multiplying the forecasted population by the average annual consumption per person (59 bottles).
| Year | Projected Number of Plastic Bottles |
|---|---|
| 2024 | 479,931,540,215 |
| 2025 | 484,250,924,079 |
| 2026 | 488,609,182,394 |
| 2027 | 493,006,665,030 |
| 2028 | 497,443,725,043 |
| 2029 | 501,920,718,557 |
| 2030 | 506,437,994,941 |
2. Global Annual Demand for PET Plastic Bottles
a) Percentage of Bottles Made from PET (2024-2030)
According to the file 828 - Percent of Plastic Water Bottles.pdf.md, PET accounts for 78.8% of plastic water bottles. This is used as the baseline for 2024 and is projected to increase by 1% compounded annually.
| Year | Projected % of Bottles Made from PET |
|---|---|
| 2024 | 78.8% |
| 2025 | 79.6% |
| 2026 | 80.4% |
| 2027 | 81.2% |
| 2028 | 82.0% |
| 2029 | 82.8% |
| 2030 | 83.6% |
b) Global Annual Demand for PET Plastic Bottles (in Metric Tons)
The annual demand is calculated using the total projected bottles, the percentage made from PET, and the average bottle weight of 10 grams.
| Year | Global Annual Demand for PET Plastic Bottles (Metric Tons) |
|---|---|
| 2024 | 3,781,861 |
| 2025 | 3,854,030 |
| 2026 | 3,927,338 |
| 2027 | 4,002,409 |
| 2028 | 4,079,015 |
| 2029 | 4,156,717 |
| 2030 | 4,236,152 |
| Identifies the World population in 2023 as 8,061,876,001. | Yes |
| Identifies the average consumption of bottles per person per year as 59. | Yes |
| Identifies the World population in 2019 as 7,776,892,015. | Yes |
| Calculates the 2019-2023 World population CAGR as 0.90%. | Yes |
| Forecasts the World population in 2024 as 8,134,432,885. | Yes |
| Forecasts the World population in 2025 as 8,207,642,781. | Yes |
| Forecasts the World population in 2026 as 8,281,511,566. | Yes |
| Forecasts the World population in 2027 as 8,356,045,170. | Yes |
| Forecasts the World population in 2028 as 8,431,249,577. | Yes |
| Forecasts the World population in 2029 as 8,507,130,823. | Yes |
| Forecasts the World population in 2030 as 8,583,695,000. | No |
| Calculates the number of plastic bottles in 2024 as 479,931,540,215. | Yes |
| Calculates the number of plastic bottles in 2025 as 484,250,924,079. | Yes |
| Calculates the number of plastic bottles in 2026 as 488,609,182,394. | Yes |
| Calculates the number of plastic bottles in 2027 as 493,006,665,030. | Yes |
| Calculates the number of plastic bottles in 2028 as 497,443,725,043. | Yes |
| Calculates the number of plastic bottles in 2029 as 501,920,718,557. | Yes |
| Calculates the number of plastic bottles in 2030 as 506,438,005,000. | No |
| Identifies the % of bottles made from PET in 2024 as 78.8%. | Yes |
| Calculates the % of bottles made from PET in 2025 as 79.6%. | Yes |
| Calculates the % of bottles made from PET in 2026 as 80.4%. | Yes |
| Calculates the % of bottles made from PET in 2027 as 81.2%. | Yes |
| Calculates the % of bottles made from PET in 2028 as 82.0%. | Yes |
| Calculates the % of bottles made from PET in 2029 as 82.8%. | Yes |
| Calculates the % of bottles made from PET in 2030 as 83.6%. | Yes |
| Calculates the global annual demand for PET plastic bottles in 2024 as 3,781,861 metric tons. | Yes |
| Calculates the global annual demand for PET plastic bottles in 2025 as 3,854,637 metric tons. | No |
| Calculates the global annual demand for PET plastic bottles in 2026 as 3,928,418 metric tons. | No |
| Calculates the global annual demand for PET plastic bottles in 2027 as 4,003,214 metric tons. | No |
| Calculates the global annual demand for PET plastic bottles in 2028 as 4,079,039 metric tons. | No |
| Calculates the global annual demand for PET plastic bottles in 2029 as 4,155,904 metric tons. | No |
| Calculates the global annual demand for PET plastic bottles in 2030 as 4,233,822 metric tons. | No |